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Energy and Environmental Forecasting and Policy AnalysisDr. Jackson's modeling and forecasting expertise dates back to 1976 when he developed the first commercial end-use model incorporating both econometric and engineering information in a single consistent methodological framework. His model, developed at the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory was used in the Carter Administration's pioneering efforts to assess the policy benefits of conservation policies and as the basis for EPRI end-use models (which he developed while serving as Chief of the Applied Research Division at the Georgia Tech Research Institute). He has extended the boundary of energy modeling since that time by incorporating microsimulation methodologies to reflect detailed technology information in analysis of conservation programs. This was part of electric utility integrated resource planning efforts. Many of these modeling projects were conducted with end-use models that integrate detailed engineering information in large-scale models. His most recent modeling work developed and applied MAISYTM agent-based energy models that require fewer resources, provide greater flexibility, and incorporate additional issues of interest to energy firms, technology companies and government agencies. Agent-based models forecast energy use and hourly loads along with technology choices and impacts of marketing, government and utility incentives and other factors in both competitive and regulated markets. Agent-based models can be used to address environmental emissions, the demand for green power, new product marketing, customer acquisition, and other issues.
Environmental impacts of energy choices are directly accessible. Indirect
greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts through reduced power plant emissions as well
as direct impacts of fossil-fuel fired end uses are explicitly represented
in Jackson Associate modeling and forecasting applications. Impacts of advanced
energy technologies such as fuel-cell combined heat and power systems are
also explicitly represented. PROJECT SAMPLES: MODELING AND FORECASTINGA Japanese Manufacturing Company: Forecasted US market potential and sales for new combined heat and power technologies under alternative equipment prices. Provided market segment detail and geographic detail to support strategic marketing plans. US Department of Energy (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory):. Developed microsimulation forecasting models to estimate consumer electric bill impacts of commercial lighting and air conditioning standards in individual utility service areas as part of the Department of Energy's appliance efficiency standards evaluation process. A Large Southern Utility Holding Company: Developed residential and commercial energy forecasting models for utility service areas covering four states. The models incorporated impacts of utility conservation programs, appliance and building standards, and new technology impacts. Results were used for capacity planning and to meet regulatory requirements. A Northwestern Electric and Gas Utility: Developed large-scale microsimulation models of electric utility customer energy use, fuel choice, technology choice, conservation activities and other relationships. Model capabilities include energy use forecasts, impact assessment of changing energy prices, and optimization of investments in utility conservation programs. Model methodology combines econometric and engineering relationships to forecast energy use and equipment choice. Data used in estimating engineering relationships were developed from the output of detailed engineering models of buildings and energy-using technologies in the service area. Model results were used in regulatory filings to support the utility's conservation investment decisions. Seven-Utility Multi-Client Project: This multi-client project developed end-use energy forecasting models for individual utilities and provided ongoing support and model extensions to meet changing needs over time. Extensions included: Estimation of econometric discrete choice fuel and technology models, computer technology diffusion models, new lighting technology diffusion models, conservation program impacts, hourly loads and peak forecasting. Individual utilities used these forecasts in annual planning processes and to meet regulatory planning requirements. A Southwestern Utility: Provided survey instrument and sample design and participated in commercial customer survey. Conducted statistical conditional demand analysis to estimate end-use energy model parameters. Developed and implemented a commercial end-use energy forecasting model. Provided support and updates. New York State Energy Office: Developed the Energy Office's commercial sector energy forecasting and policy analysis model including detailed analysis of the impacts of growing office and computer use. The model was used to forecast energy needs and to evaluate potential impacts of state-mandated conservation policies. Provided testimony in utility regulatory hearings. An Upstate New York Utility: Developed an econometric quarterly short-term model of energy use and peak electricity demand. The model was used to estimate monthly revenue and energy supply requirements. Testified in company rate cases. Provided monthly updating and monthly model support. New England Power Pool: Developed commercial sector energy demand model for each of the six New England states. Developed stochastic simulation methodology to analyze forecast uncertainties. Models were used to forecast energy requirements of the New England Power Pool area. Northwest Power Planning Council: Developed end-use commercial sector forecasting models for each of four Pacific Northwest states to support energy forecasting and conservation policy analysis for this congressionally chartered planning agency. The council used these models to fulfill resource-planning requirements. Bonneville Power Administration: Estimated fuel and energy equipment efficiency choice models. Electric Power Research Institute:. Developed EPRI's COMMEND (commercial end-use energy forecasting model) which has been provided to member utilities and other organizations throughout the world and is still applied in the electric utility industry. |
(c) 2007 Jerry Jackson. All rights reserved.